Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 04 2024 06:58:28

ACUS02 KWNS 040658
SWODY2
SPC AC 040656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

....South to central FL...
A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z
Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude
open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic
coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies
will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward
through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level
updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z
period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the
composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL
Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less
suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land.
This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of
large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall
potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe
weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks.

....CA...
Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and
inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A
surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1
and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis
should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a
shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific
longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite
limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are
not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft
rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest
southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur.

...Grams.. 02/04/2024

$$

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