Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 03 2024 19:44:23 ACUS01 KWNS 031944 SWODY1 SPC AC 031942 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into tonight from the central Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ....20Z Update... Minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm area, based on recent observational and guidance trends and the progression of convection along parts of the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ...Dean.. 02/03/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ....Discussion... Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the Gulf through the period. Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs, extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the Southeast. Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. More widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open Gulf. While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable severe risk. Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk appears minimal at best. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .