Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 03 2024 17:31:21 ACUS02 KWNS 031731 SWODY2 SPC AC 031729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ....Florida... Guidance continues to suggest bimodal severe potential across parts of Florida on Sunday, with an early-day threat across south FL and the Keys, and a potential afternoon/early-evening threat across parts of the central/northern peninsula. Uncertainty remains regarding the impact of the early-day convection on the later potential threat farther north. An MCS will likely be ongoing offshore of the FL Gulf Coast at the start of the forecast period Sunday morning, in association with a deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered near the ArkLaTex region. Low-level moisture will initially be rather meager across the peninsula, and the northern portion of the MCS will likely weaken as it outpaces moisture return. However, moisture recovery across south FL may be sufficient to maintain the southern portion of the remnant MCS, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear to support potential for a tornado or two and locally damaging wind. Slower timing of the MCS would allow for greater moistening/destabilization, while a faster timing would reduce recovery potential and potentially limit the severe threat. Farther north, some severe potential may evolve during the afternoon, as a surface low deepens over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and a steep midlevel lapse rate plume and related dry slot overspread the central/northern peninsula. The magnitude of the severe threat in this regime will be dependent on the extent of heating and low-level moisture return, which in turn will be influenced by timing and evolution of the morning MCS. If sufficient destabilization can occur and deep convection can be sustained, then deep-layer shear will support potential supercell development. Favorable low-level shear/SRH within the effective warm frontal zone would support some tornado threat, in addition to isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. If confidence in supercell development increases, then higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed within this regime. Guidance suggests a relative minimum in severe threat across parts of the central peninsula, between the two regimes described above. However, with uncertainty regarding the northern extent of the early-day threat, and southern extent of afternoon severe potential, confidence is too low to downgrade probabilities across any part of the peninsula at this time. ....Central California coast... In response to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen off of the central CA coast during the day on Sunday, before it begins to occlude by Sunday night. In the wake of substantial early-day precipitation, low-topped convection may develop offshore and spread inland. Very weak instability will limit updraft intensity, but strong low-level flow/shear (with 50-60 kt of flow within the lowest 1 km AGL) may support a brief tornado or two and isolated severe gusts near the immediate central CA coast, mainly during the afternoon. ...Dean.. 02/03/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .