Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 03 2024 16:31:23

ACUS01 KWNS 031631
SWODY1
SPC AC 031629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to
parts of the central Plains.

....Discussion...
Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and
tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively
tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains
today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight.  As this
occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region,
with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across
the Gulf through the period.

Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the
Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs,
extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the
Southeast.

Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of
the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity
southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys.  More
widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open
Gulf.  While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern
Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear
combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable
severe risk.

Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this
afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over
Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk
appears minimal at best.

...Goss/Thornton.. 02/03/2024

$$

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