Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 03 2024 12:53:48 ACUS01 KWNS 031253 SWODY1 SPC AC 031252 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ....Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS, with strong ridging from central Canada southeastward across the Ohio Valley to the Southeast. The southern part of the ridging will erode laterally as a strong shortwave trough -- initially located over parts of southern NM and west TX -- pivots through cyclonic flow around a closed 500-mb low now near CAO. The shortwave trough will strengthen and become the dominant closed cyclone centered near SHV by the end of the period, along an extensive larger-scale trough from the central Rockies to the south-central Gulf. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a low in the CAO/DRT area, stacked with the 500-mb center. An occluded front was drawn across the northeastern TX Panhandle, southwestern OK, and western north TX, with cold front over south-central TX into southern Coahuila. A warm front was analyzed from the central to northwestern Gulf to just off the upper TX Coast, becoming diffuse amongst convective processes and outflows further northwest. An elongated area of low pressure was drawn over the lower TX Coast. That coastal low should shift northeastward to just offshore from the west-central part of the LA coastline by 00Z, with cold front arching southward and southwestward across the western Gulf. Meanwhile, the occluded low should drift southeastward over the TX Panhandle, with the occluded front reaching parts of northwest, north-central and southeast TX. By 12Z tomorrow, the occluded/cold front should extend from the western low over north-central TX, through another over southwestern or south-central MS, across the MS Gulf Coast, arching to the east-central and south-central Gulf. ....Western Gulf Coast... An ongoing band of thunderstorms is moving across parts of the middle/lower TX Coast, roughly between Baffin Bay and the Brazos River. The northern part is impinging on outflow from an earlier complex now over the Gulf south of BPT, which will limit severe-wind potential, and the mode should preclude substantial hail. A few strong gusts or instances of hail approaching severe limits may occur with this activity before it moves offshore, with drying aloft likely limiting development upshear. Substantial clouds and precip should preclude favorable destabilization for overland severe farther east. Sufficient shear and instability to support supercells are possible over the open Gulf, but any associated organized severe threat should remain away from land areas through the end of the period. ....Northeast TX to east-central OK... A band of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms is expected to develop over parts of east-central/southeastern OK and north TX east of I-35 during midday to early afternoon. Activity should persist through much of the afternoon, and shift slowly eastward, while embedded cells move largely northward. Convection should occur amidst diurnally/diabatically weakened MLCINH, behind an arc of morning clouds/precip, and along the eastern rim of a midlevel dry slot that provides preconvective clearing/heating opportunity. Relatively low tops (near 400 mb) are expected for convection in this region -- some of which should be surface-based. Cold air aloft (around -22 to -24 deg C at 500 mb) will enable sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates, above residual moisture with 50s F surface dewpoints, for a narrow plume of around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE, despite cool (upper 50s to mid 60s F) inflow-layer surface temperatures. Forecast wind profiles indicate weak deep/ effective shear and reversely curved hodographs with limited positive SRH, though thermally enhanced low-level vorticity may maximize in the corridor. The most vigorous cells may produce small hail and strong gusts, and perhaps funnel clouds. Organized severe potential appears too conditional and low to assign outlook-threshold probabilities at this time. ...Edwards/Leitman.. 02/03/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .