Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 03 2024 10:00:47

ACUS48 KWNS 031000
SWOD48
SPC AC 030959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Negligible severe potential is expected through D4-5, with some
increase possible late in the week.

Northerly low-level winds over the Gulf will persist into D4 before
modified return flow ensues across the western Gulf. Decent
large-scale agreement continues across guidance with the progression
of an upper trough off the CA coast. This trough should eject over
the Southwest before reaching the north-central states around D6. As
this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will commence over the central High
Plains and then track northeast into the Upper Midwest. A fast
southwesterly mid-level jet will spread across the southern Great
Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. This should overlap the northern
extent of the modifying warm-moist sector ahead of a Pacific cold
front/dryline. Instability progs appear rather limited amid weak
mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector on D6. But given
the fast flow regime and consensus convective signal for
thunderstorms in the Ark-La-Tex to Mid-South vicinity on D6, an
isolated severe threat is plausible.

In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, guidance spread
increases with upstream shortwave impulses over the West. It is
possible that richer Gulf moisture and a broader warm-moist sector
will be present over the south-central states. This would seemingly
foster more appreciable severe potential around next weekend with
any waves that can eject east of the southern Rockies.

...Grams.. 02/03/2024

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