Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 03 2024 08:23:45

ACUS03 KWNS 030823
SWODY3
SPC AC 030822

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

....FL...
A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at
12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula
and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit
instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly
unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered,
low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible
during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a
unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an
elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of
the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible.

....CA...
Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and
inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A
surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2
and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast
before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur
towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave
impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough
approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak
low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might
occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the
Central Valley to the coast.

...Grams.. 02/03/2024

$$

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