Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 03 2024 07:08:45 ACUS02 KWNS 030708 SWODY2 SPC AC 030707 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ....FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ...Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ...Grams.. 02/03/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .