Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 03 2024 05:02:46 ACUS01 KWNS 030502 SWODY1 SPC AC 030501 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY TODAY NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing some risk for severe hail and wind might still impact portions of mid and upper Texas coastal areas into mid morning, before generally becoming confined to the northwestern through central Gulf of Mexico later today through tonight. ....Discussion... Models indicate that an anomalous, blocking mid/upper high, centered over the Upper Midwest, will generally be maintained through this period. Downstream of this feature, one cyclone appears likely to move little, offshore of the northern Atlantic coast. Upstream, a deepening surface cyclone may approach the central California coast today through tonight, coincident with at least some further amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern North America. This likely will include building ridging inland of the California coast, and across the Baja California vicinity, into the U.S. Great Basin and northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to these developments, a mid-level low, still in the process of evolving to the east of the southern Rockies, is forecast to elongate southeastward across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity today through early Sunday. As this occurs, it appears that the ongoing southerly return flow, off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into southern Great Plains, will become cut off, probably by mid to late morning. ....Northwestern Gulf Coast... Forcing for ascent, in the exit region of a strong digging mid/upper jet, may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development near mid/upper Texas coastal areas into the 12-15Z time frame this morning. However, based on latest model output, it is appearing increasingly probable that this will be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer, in an environment otherwise only perhaps marginally supportive of severe hail and/or wind gusts. By late morning, if not earlier, through the remainder of the period, the high resolution ensemble output (among other guidance) suggests that potential for strong thunderstorm development will generally become confined to the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico. ...Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .