Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 03 2024 00:57:44 ACUS01 KWNS 030057 SWODY1 SPC AC 030056 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO AND EAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ....01Z Update... Despite the initially modest nature of the boundary-layer moistening, daytime heating has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, focused just to the east of slowly deepening surface troughing from parts of northwest Texas into the Rio Grande west of Del Rio. Generally near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling, convection continues to increase along this corridor, preceded by additional more discrete storm development across the Rio Grande River into the Texas Hill Country. North/northeast of a line, roughly from the Edwards Plateau toward the upper Texas coastal plain, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, with inhibition for boundary-layer parcels also already increasing in response to the loss of daytime heating. However, with boundary-layer dew points slowly continuing to increase through the lower/mid 60s F across southeastern into central Texas, there may be sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous convective development as mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft continues to spread eastward tonight. Some further increase and intensification of convection still appears possible later this evening/overnight, where shear and perhaps better low-level moistening remain focused across the Hill Country into the Texas coastal plain. This may include an organizing cluster or line posing a risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two. ...Kerr.. 02/03/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .