Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 02 2024 17:33:10 ACUS02 KWNS 021733 SWODY2 SPC AC 021731 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST.... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ....Synopsis... Mid-level cyclone will likely be centered over the southern High Plains, embedded within an expansive parent upper trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Expectation is for this cyclone is gradually shift eastward/southeastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly occluded and ending the period centered over south-central OK/north TX. Primary surface low associated with this system is forecast to begin the period over the OK Panhandle, with slow southeastward progression anticipated with this occluded low as well. Secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated at the triple point, which will likely move from the Middle TX coast to northeast Gulf. The low-latitude position of this low will limit the inland penetration of the low-level moisture needed to support any surface-based buoyancy, confining most of the severe potential to the immediate coastal areas. Isolated thunderstorm potential is also anticipated along the occluded front, with buoyancy along this boundary fostered predominantly by cold mid-level temperatures. ....Middle TX Coast/Southeast TX into Southern LA... Guidance is in good agreement that the triple point will be centered over southeast TX early Saturday morning. A warm front will extend from this low southeastward off the coast near the TX/LA border, while an occluded front extends back northwestward to the primary surface low over the OK Panhandle. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the length of this occluded front as well as farther south in the vicinity of the triple point and attendant cold front. Given the presence of moderate low-level moisture, highest likelihood for surface-based buoyancy will be within the warm sector over southeast TX ahead of the triple-point low Saturday morning. Even so, the potential for truly surface-based storms will be limited by the lack of heating and generally cool boundary layer. Deep convection should still be realized along the cold front, supported by forcing along the front, modest buoyancy, and strong deep-layer shear. Despite the potential shallow low-level stability, some damaging convective gusts could still reach the surface, particularly within the linear convection along the front. Some isolated hail is possible too. Additionally, the veering low-level flow appears sufficient for some tornado potential, although the overall probability should remain low given the predominantly linear mode and persistent low-level stability. Greatest overall severe potential is anticipated over southeast TX Saturday morning, but some low severe threat should continue along the immediate southern LA coast where enough low-level moisture should be in place for near-surface-based storms. ....East TX into Eastern OK and Central/Eastern KS... Additional thunderstorm development is possible late Saturday afternoon along the occluded front from east TX into eastern OK and central/eastern KS. In these areas, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong diurnal heating, with related steep low-level lapse rates, will result in steep lapse rate profiles throughout much of the troposphere. These profiles will support skinny CAPE and convection deep enough to produce small hail and lightning. Northward storm motion should tend to take storms north of the occluded front, limiting strength as they move into areas with less low-level moisture. ...Mosier.. 02/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .