Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 02 2024 16:31:12 ACUS01 KWNS 021631 SWODY1 SPC AC 021629 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY SOUTH TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ....SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ....Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ....Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. ...Goss/Thornton.. 02/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .