Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 02 2024 09:54:37

ACUS48 KWNS 020954
SWOD48
SPC AC 020953

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

....DISCUSSION...
In the wake of severe threats today through Sunday, a return to
negligible severe potential is anticipated for much of next week.
Northerly low-level flow over the Gulf through midweek will mitigate
thunderstorm development across all but southern CA on D5-6. The
latter will be supported by a slow-moving, amplified upper trough
approaching southern CA and Baja CA. Guidance has above-average
agreement regarding the progression of this trough across the West
into the Great Plains towards the end of the period. As this occurs,
modifying low-level return flow from the western Gulf will ensue
beneath an elevated mixed layer. Despite this, instability progs
appear rather weak where cyclogenesis focuses from the central High
Plains to Upper Midwest. Given a likely positive-tilt orientation of
the trough, in conjunction with a slowly southeastward-moving cold
front that is oriented nearly parallel to the deep-layer flow, the
setup does not appear to support an organized severe threat.

...Grams.. 02/02/2024

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.