Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 02 2024 08:31:38 ACUS03 KWNS 020831 SWODY3 SPC AC 020830 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south to central Florida late morning to afternoon Sunday. ....South to central FL... Secondary cyclogenesis remains the consensus forecast in the north-central Gulf to FL Panhandle vicinity, during the latter portion D2 into the first half of D3. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across the Gulf into the south FL Peninsula by early Monday. A conditional high-shear/low-CAPE setup remains plausible across the southern half of the peninsula during the late morning to afternoon. The 00Z NAM is clearly on the aggressive spectrum of guidance with the amplification of low to mid-level flow across south FL, yielding rather enlarged hodographs coupled with adequate surface-based instability advecting northeast from the eastern Gulf. Guidance consensus is for a more subdued intrusion of eastern Gulf moisture, likely occurring on the backside of scattered morning to afternoon convection that spreads towards the peninsula within a more moderate low-level warm conveyor. Given the spread across guidance and in run-to-run continuity, have deferred to later outlooks for potential delineation of a cat 2-SLGT risk. ....Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late D2 into early D3 off the CA coast. Guidance has pronounced spread with the amplitude of this cyclogenesis, as well as run-to-run continuity differences in how close to the coast it occurs. The more aggressive guidance suggests a conditional brief tornado threat might develop around the afternoon to early evening, if adequate surface-based instability can spread towards the coast. But with below-average forecast confidence given the guidance uncertainty, will defer to later outlooks for the possibility of a cat 1-MRGL risk. ...Grams.. 02/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .