Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 02 2024 07:54:02

FOUS30 KWBC 020753
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Fri Feb 02 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 02 2024 - 12Z Sat Feb 03 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS
COAST...


The latest model guidance remains consistent with the increasing
shower/thunderstorm activity across the Southern Plains Friday
afternoon/evening as strong height falls push through the
Southwest and into the Southern High Plains.  PW values expected
to continue to increase day 1 ahead of these height falls as low
level southerly flow strengthens off the western Gulf and spreads
northward into the Southern Plains. The well defined upper
difluence ahead of these height falls and the axis of increasing
PW values will support potential for areas of heavy rains.  There
continues to be a lot of spread with where the heaviest totals
will occur.  This is illustrated well with the HREF neighborhood
probabilities showing a large area of high probabilities for 1"+
totals across central to eastern Texas, northward into portions of
southeast to western Oklahoma and south central Kansas.  However,
the EAS probabilities for 1"+ amounts day 1 are much lower
indicating poor overlap in the latest hi res models.  The previous
marginal risk area still fits the geographical spread in the
latest guidance, leading to no changes at the moment in the
marginal risk area.  No changes also to the risk level given the
current spread in qpf details and consensus that any precip will
be generally to the northwest of where the heaviest amounts have
occurred over the past few weeks.

Oravec


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8Vxs3owHNLESeaByspvn5OcmOc-dIs49oE1usDF7bwtS=
REkB1hLTxhp5SD9NDGpInRBOWDprHOaS7gRIAkLUtKJnPKA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8Vxs3owHNLESeaByspvn5OcmOc-dIs49oE1usDF7bwtS=
REkB1hLTxhp5SD9NDGpInRBOWDprHOaS7gRIAkLUOjBERpM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8Vxs3owHNLESeaByspvn5OcmOc-dIs49oE1usDF7bwtS=
REkB1hLTxhp5SD9NDGpInRBOWDprHOaS7gRIAkLUIjVRpQA$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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