Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 02 2024 06:32:39

ACUS02 KWNS 020632
SWODY2
SPC AC 020630

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX
AND NEAR THE LA COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over
southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast.

....Southeast TX and far southern LA...
Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning
across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep
convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over
how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z.
The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg,
will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A
gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast,
ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the
lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a
threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before
surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of
surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS
River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating
amid widespread rain/clouds.

....Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK...
Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be
possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then
southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most
probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast
TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates
with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in
low-topped convection along the front.

...Grams.. 02/02/2024

$$

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