Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 02 2024 00:38:06

ACUS01 KWNS 020037
SWODY1
SPC AC 020036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....01z Update...

Large-scale midlevel height fields continue to fall across the
southwestern US as a significant southern-stream short-wave trough
advances toward southern CA/Baja Peninsula. 500mb speed max
associated with this feature will encourage the short wave to
approach the lower CO River Valley/Gulf of CA by the end of the
period. Cooling/steepening profiles north of the jet exhibit ample
buoyancy for convection, some of which are producing lightning this
evening. 00z soundings across the southwestern US support this with
TUS, NKX, OAK, and FGZ all displaying a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE.
Latest lightning data also supports this with pockets of deeper
convection/lightning evident across the higher terrain of northern
AZ, and across the interior valleys of CA. No changes are warranted
to the 20z outlook regarding the prospect for thunderstorms tonight.

...Darrow.. 02/02/2024

$$

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