Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 01 2024 17:13:01 ACUS02 KWNS 011712 SWODY2 SPC AC 011711 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ....Synopsis... A blocking pattern over central North America will be undercut by a powerful eastward-moving upper jet streak located over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. border states. Strong difluence and implied ascent will overspread the southern Great Plains during the day-2 period as 60+ meter per 12 hour height falls and associated cooling mid-level temperatures move east into TX/OK. In the low levels, a lee trough over the south-central High Plains will evolve into a surface low centered over southeast CO by early Saturday morning. ....Southern Great Plains... Southerly low-level flow will aid in modest low-level moistening east of a dryline over the southern High Plains. In agreement with previous forecast thinking, it seems marginal buoyancy will develop during the afternoon within a meridional deep-layer wind profile. An arc of isolated thunderstorms is expected from the TX Big Country north along the OK/TX Panhandle border during the mid-late afternoon. A couple of transient supercells capable of an isolated threat for large hail may accompany the stronger activity. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front pushes east. It is over portions of the Edwards Plateau that there is greater confidence for widely scattered supercell development during the late afternoon/early evening. This activity should spread east across south-central TX through the late evening/overnight. Although low-level moisture (primarily 50s dewpoints) will reside across the area, cooling 500-mb temperatures (-16 to -20 deg C) will yield 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This magnitude of buoyancy and long hodographs supporting supercells suggest a threat for large hail. The latest convection-allowing model guidance explicitly supports this notion. Storm intensity is forecast to wane during the overnight into the pre-dawn hours. Nonetheless, any robust remaining storms will gradually move into a slightly more moist environment over the coastal plain with perhaps a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado/wind gust. ...Smith.. 02/01/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .