Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 01 2024 16:31:04

ACUS01 KWNS 011630
SWODY1
SPC AC 011629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from
the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period.
This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong
jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico.
Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying
the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today,
supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within
eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height
falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in
the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated
lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given
weak instability.

While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across
portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of
convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related
decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm
potential.

...Weinman/Smith.. 02/01/2024

$$

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