Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 01 2024 12:38:02 ACUS01 KWNS 011237 SWODY1 SPC AC 011236 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ....Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified pattern is forecast through the remainder of this period and into day-2, as ridging shifts eastward over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. To its southwest, a large area of cyclonic flow and height falls will continue to build further inland, covering most of the western CONUS by the end of the period. Within that, several embedded shortwaves will contribute to the eastward motion and amplification of mean troughing, including a perturbation evident in moisture-channel imagery over coastal central/northern CA. This feature should dig east-southeastward across the lower Colorado River Valley tonight, reaching central AZ and southern NV by 12Z tomorrow. The strongest, cyclonically curved, 500-250-mb layer jet will remain southwest of the negatively tilted trough, across the Pacific from northern Baja west-northwestward. However: 1. Large-scale ascent associated with the left-exit region will spread across a wide swath of CA, AZ and ultimately NM, as well as strongly difluent mid/upper flow. 2. Midlevel DCVA, and low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, will contribute further to varying scales of lift over parts of the region, while Pacific moisture increases in low/middle levels. These factors should lead to weak but sufficient MUCAPE to support a generally eastward-developing thunder potential with time, across the outlook area. A couple of highly conditional areas for isolated strong storms are apparent, but with potential too low for a severe outlook. Sufficient destabilization may develop to support surface-based, post-frontal convection this afternoon into early evening over the CA Central Valley. However, vertical shear will be weak, keeping activity pulse in nature. Farther south around the L.A. Basin and nearby coastline, enough destabilization for surface-based buoyancy may occur behind the initial frontal band, but also amid veering near-surface flow and weakening shear with time. ...Edwards/Gleason.. 02/01/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .