Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 01 2024 09:52:28

ACUS48 KWNS 010952
SWOD48
SPC AC 010951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Latest guidance continues to converge towards the notion of
secondary cyclogenesis in the north-central Gulf vicinity, during
the latter half of D3 into D4. This process should occur as the
intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX
into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across
much of the Gulf into the FL Peninsula by early Monday.

A potential high-shear/low-CAPE environment remains plausible across
roughly the southern third of FL for a 3-6 hour period during Sunday
morning to afternoon. A substantial influx of low-level moisture
will be necessary after an initially dry air mass lingers over most
of the peninsula through D3. Widespread convection is expected to
approach the peninsula Sunday morning, within the robust low-level
warm conveyor ahead of a sweeping Pacific cold front and diffluent
upper flow regime. Instability should be quite limited where
low-level shear is large, but this will need careful monitoring over
the upcoming days.

Severe potential will likely resume being negligible again as
boundary-layer moisture becomes limited over the Gulf until around
late next week.

...Grams.. 02/01/2024

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