Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 01 2024 08:26:01

ACUS03 KWNS 010825
SWODY3
SPC AC 010825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX
AND ALONG THE LA COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over
southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast.

....Southeast TX and far southern LA...
Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near
the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX
on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The
plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be
centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a
gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew
points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear
should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief
tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the
Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in
LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given
minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day.

Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be
possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary
occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly
aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of
morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be
coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening
mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This
could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence
in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX.

...Grams.. 02/01/2024

$$

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