Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 01 2024 08:12:04

FOUS30 KWBC 010811
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Thu Feb 01 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 01 2024 - 12Z Fri Feb 02 2024

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE LOS ANGELES AND SAN
DIEGO METRO AREAS...


No significant changes made to the slight risk area across the
coastal Southern California, including the Transverse and
Peninsular Ranges.  The ongoing atmospheric River event focused
into northern to central California early Thursday morning, along
and ahead of the associated surface frontal boundary, will
continue to press south into coastal sections of Southern
California after 1200 UTC Thursday.  PW values along and ahead of
this front will remain anomalous, 2 to 3+ standard deviations
above the mean, along with similar 850-700 mb moisture flux
anomalies. This will lead to widespread heavy precip totals across
coastal southern California day 1, including the Los Angeles and
San Diego metro regions.  Model qpf continuity is very good with
this event, resulting in little in the way of changes to the
previous Excessive Rainfall Outlook.  While the PW and 850-700 mb
moisture flux values are anomalous, the progressive nature of the
front will be a limiting factor for very heavy totals.  This is
reflected in the HREF neighborhood probabilities for .50"+/hour,
which are high across the slight risk area, dropping off
significantly for values of 1"+/hour.   The current slight risk
area fits in well with where HREF neighborhood probabilities are
high for 1"+ totals Day 1, 90%+  and 2"+ totals Day 1, 50-90%.

Oravec


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9VpnhRE-pL1Lhf0Qh-09t6UuQvFmSQQrV1qxn4L5jTWT=
bMpwG-GdHvGjrFrgu63jWJfJnNhoKxcr8TpC5kz_56eRzMk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9VpnhRE-pL1Lhf0Qh-09t6UuQvFmSQQrV1qxn4L5jTWT=
bMpwG-GdHvGjrFrgu63jWJfJnNhoKxcr8TpC5kz_vIX9v4M$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9VpnhRE-pL1Lhf0Qh-09t6UuQvFmSQQrV1qxn4L5jTWT=
bMpwG-GdHvGjrFrgu63jWJfJnNhoKxcr8TpC5kz_TrROh6Q$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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