Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 01 2024 05:19:28

ACUS01 KWNS 010519
SWODY1
SPC AC 010518

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....Discussion...

High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the
southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward
the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant.
Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across
much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls
spread across this region. One notable surface front will move
inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of
the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored
onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic
influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across
the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to
warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024

$$

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