Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 31 2024 17:19:25

ACUS02 KWNS 311719
SWODY2
SPC AC 311717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

....Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the
West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to
move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern
CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help
induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early
Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within
the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period
over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four
Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated
within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling
mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy
and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular
convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ.

Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and
evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air
advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of
precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough
to produce isolated lightning flashes.

Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS
Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward,
ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper
Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move
across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern
Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will
preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across
the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool,
stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.

...Mosier.. 01/31/2024

$$

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