Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 31 2024 09:55:21

ACUS48 KWNS 310955
SWOD48
SPC AC 310953

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....D4-5/Saturday-Sunday across the Gulf Coast States...
Severe potential appears to be trending somewhat lower as guidance
gradually converges on the large-scale upper pattern. Moderate
run-to-run differences and ensemble spread exist with the potential
evolution of multiple surface cyclones and timing of their
consolidation towards Sunday-Monday.

A low-end severe threat from late D3 may linger into early D4,
mainly over the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast. Surface-based buoyancy
may remain quite weak owing to richer Gulf moisture holding to the
south, in conjunction with widespread ongoing convection. The latter
will be supported by a highly diffluent upper flow regime in the
left-exit region of a very fast jet streak lagging well to the west.
Guidance has decent agreement with deep convection spreading east
from the western to the eastern Gulf, arcing back to the northwest
across the Lower MS Valley by Sunday morning. This should mitigate
appreciable surface-based destabilization across the northern Gulf
Coast outside of perhaps coastal LA.

Surface ridging across FL may linger into D4, suggesting that the
low-level moisture influx on D5 will be accompanied by abundant
warm-conveyor convection. As such, surface-based instability may be
rather limited outside of the central FL Gulf Coast to parts of
south FL. In addition, substantially stronger mid/upper flow should
lag deep convection when it spreads across the peninsula.

...Grams.. 01/31/2024

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