Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 31 2024 08:19:21

ACUS03 KWNS 310819
SWODY3
SPC AC 310818

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late
afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas.

....TX...
Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to
evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region
of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA
and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with
the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor
peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline,
centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau.

Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional
with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards
12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while
adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical
western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points
staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from
500-1000 J/kg.

The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters,
with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective
life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during
the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a  greater signal for
this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise,
some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe
a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens
towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this
intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak
buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for
this time frame.

...Grams.. 01/31/2024

$$

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