Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 31 2024 06:38:48

ACUS02 KWNS 310638
SWODY2
SPC AC 310637

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

....Parts of the Southwest...
A full-latitude mid/upper trough with several embedded vorticity
maxima will take on a negative tilt as it becomes centered from the
Desert Southwest to west of the OR/WA coast by 12Z Friday.
Thunderstorm potential will be diurnally maximized on Thursday
afternoon across the CA Central Valley, where meager buoyancy
develops beneath the mid-level thermal trough. Weak deep-layer shear
should foster slow-moving, pulse convection.

A north/south-oriented swath of rain attendant to a low-level warm
conveyor will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday over parts of
southern CA. This should gradually move east across the U.S. portion
of the Sonoran Desert through the period. Meager surface-based
buoyancy should develop behind this swath over southern CA in the
wake of surface trough passage, as well as ahead of it in the Four
Corners vicinity amid above-normal temperatures and southwest
low-level flow. Overall thunderstorm coverage should tend to remain
fairly isolated, with sporadic lightning flashes possible through
the period in the more robust, low-topped convection.

...Grams.. 01/31/2024

$$

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