Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 31 2024 05:09:48

ACUS01 KWNS 310509
SWODY1
SPC AC 310508

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along portions of the California
Coast.

....Coastal California...

Midlevel heights will gradually lower across much of the western US
during the day1 period. Of note, a significant short-wave trough
will approach southern CA/northern Baja Peninsula late in the
period, though coldest midlevel temperatures will likely hold just
offshore through 01/12z. Even so, high-level diffluent flow and
large-scale ascent will contribute to moistening profiles within a
warm-advection regime. Latest model guidance suggests weak buoyancy
will develop along the northern/central CA Coast, especially after
06z as profiles begin to cool. Forecast soundings exhibit SBCAPE on
the order of 200 J/kg near the frontal zone, and the deepest
updrafts may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge,
especially for parcels reaching 5-6km AGL.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 01/31/2024

$$

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