Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 30 2024 16:22:46

ACUS01 KWNS 301622
SWODY1
SPC AC 301621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
No thunderstorm areas are apparent through tonight.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
Downstream of a broad/weak southern-latitude mid/upper-level trough
currently over the Baja Peninsula, morning satellite imagery shows
an embedded disturbance tracking slowly northward across northwest
Mexico. This embedded disturbance should generally continue
northward within a belt of modest south-southwesterly flow
downstream of the parent trough, with related lift overspreading
portions of southeastern AZ by this afternoon. Despite increasing
cloud coverage associated with this feature, ample diurnal
heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid weak low-level
moisture advection may support very weak surface-based instability
(characterized by an inverted-V profile) across far southeastern AZ
by this afternoon. However, given modest large-scale ascent and the
limited buoyancy, any embedded lightning potential appears too low
for a General Thunderstorm area.

Farther east, a robust midlevel trough and attendant jet streak will
continue southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys today. While
strong deep-layer lift along a related cold front will favor a swath
of east/southeastward-moving precipitation into the Carolinas, any
pre-frontal elevated buoyancy appears too limited for a substantial
thunderstorm risk. The one exception will be offshore of NC during
the overnight/early morning hours, where heat/moisture fluxes atop
the Gulf Steam will contribute to sufficient instability for
thunderstorms.

...Weinman/Hart.. 01/30/2024

$$

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