Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 30 2024 07:56:19

ACUS03 KWNS 300756
SWODY3
SPC AC 300755

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

....CA and southern AZ...
A full-latitude mid/upper trough with several embedded vorticity
maxima will take on a negative tilt as it becomes centered from the
Desert Southwest to west of the OR/WA coast by 12Z Friday.
Thunderstorm potential should be diurnally maximized on Thursday
afternoon across the Central Valley, where meager buoyancy develops
beneath the mid-level thermal trough. Weak deep-layer shear should
foster slow-moving, pulse convection.

Across southern CA, a north/south-oriented swath of rain attendant
to a low-level warm conveyor will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday.
This should gradually move eastward Thursday morning into the
afternoon. Scant elevated instability may accompany the backside of
this swath, before meager surface-based instability develops in the
wake of surface trough passage. The warm conveyor should eventually
spread into parts of southern AZ on Thursday night. Sporadic
lightning flashes will be possible through the period in the more
robust, low-topped convection.

...Grams.. 01/30/2024

$$

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