Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 30 2024 10:01:20

ACUS48 KWNS 301001
SWOD48
SPC AC 300959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....D4-6/Friday-Sunday across the Gulf Coast States...
An area of interest exists for at least isolated severe potential.
This should begin later D4 across central TX and spread into parts
of south TX before progressing across the TX/LA coastal plain early
D5. Some severe threat may develop for a short-duration period over
the central/south FL peninsula around early D6.

Large-scale predictability continues to converge towards a
negative-tilt mid/upper trough over the Southwest, evolving into a
closed low centered near the Lower MS Valley by about D6. Overall
trends have been for a faster eastward progression. Greater
agreement, but still with a moderate degree of run-to-run
differences and ensemble spread, exists with surface cyclone
evolution and strength of low-level wind fields.

Overall trends appear more favorable for dryline/Pacific cold front
thunderstorms centered on central TX during the late afternoon
Friday and spreading into parts of south TX during the
evening/night. Here, initially steep mid-level lapse rates and
adequate low-level moisture, within the left-exit region of a very
fast mid-level jet across the Gulf of CA and north Mexico, could
foster an isolated large-hail threat. Given the presence of surface
ridging through D2 over the western Gulf, richer moisture return may
not reach the coastal plain before the Pacific cold front sweeps
east around early D5.

Surface ridging should linger longer over the FL Peninsula through
D4, suggesting that the low-level moisture influx by early D6 will
likely be accompanied by warm-conveyor convection. As such, the
window for appreciable surface-based instability may be quite
limited. The weak thermodynamic environment may be compensated by
the impinging of the fast mid-level jet spreading across the entire
Gulf around the south side of the closed cyclone.

...Grams.. 01/30/2024

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