Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 29 2024 17:05:53

ACUS02 KWNS 291705
SWODY2
SPC AC 291704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

....Synopsis...
A dry continental airmass will be in place east of the Rockies early
Tuesday morning. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress
southwestward from the Upper Midwest through the OH and TN Valley
and into the southern Appalachians. An attendant surface low and
associated cold front will move southeastward in tandem with the
shortwave as well. Airmass modification ahead of this system will be
limited, with any notable low-level moisture remaining well
offshore. Even so, cold mid-level temperatures could result in
modest buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes,
particularly from the Carolina Piedmont into northeast GA. However,
coverage is expected to remain below 10%.

Secondary surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast
early Wednesday morning, with related warm-air advection
contributing to some potential for elevated thunderstorms and
isolated lightning flashes offshore.

Farther west, a deep cyclone is forecast to move eastward towards
the West Coast, while a pair of shortwave troughs eject through its
eastern periphery into the Pacific Northwest. Primary frontal band
is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Some limited elevated
buoyancy is possible within this band, contributing to deeper
convection element and the chance for a lightning flash or two.
However, overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain below 10%.

...Mosier.. 01/29/2024

$$

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