Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 29 2024 09:41:52

ACUS48 KWNS 290941
SWOD48
SPC AC 290940

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An area of interest exists for mainly isolated severe potential,
centered on early D6 across the TX/LA coastal plain and sometime on
D7 over the FL Peninsula.

Large-scale predictability has increased over the past 24 hours with
the subsequent evolution of the well-advertised, full-latitude
longwave trough approaching the West Coast on D4. Amid several
embedded vorticity maxima and a very fast mid/upper jet, the trough
will become negatively tilted followed by evolving into a closed low
near and along the Gulf Coast through this weekend.

With surface ridging being maintained across the eastern Gulf and FL
on D4-6, the warm-moist sector should be spatially confined
initially to the western Gulf. While this will undoubtedly lead to
thunder coverage increasing substantially by late Friday over parts
of TX, the bulk of isolated severe potential should be maximized on
Saturday near the coastal plain where boundary-layer moisture will
be richest. Guidance suggests a progressive evolution will persist
into Sunday, potentially yielding a rapid influx of Gulf moisture
for a seemingly isolated severe threat across the FL Peninsula.
Sub-synoptic differences remain quite apparent among deterministic
guidance regarding the spatiotemporal details of surface cyclone
evolution and low-level wind fields, with a large degree of ensemble
member spread.

...Grams.. 01/29/2024

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