Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 28 2024 19:28:16

ACUS01 KWNS 281928
SWODY1
SPC AC 281926

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

....Synopsis...

A surface cold front will continue to drift south across the far
southern FL Peninsula and FL Keys the next few hours. A few
thunderstorms near the southeast FL coast will shift offshore, and
while a thunderstorm or two remains possible the next couple of
hours, thunderstorm potential is expected to end by 00z.

...Leitman.. 01/28/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track
eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open
wave through the period. A related cold front extending
south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will
continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening.
Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal
heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should
support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern
Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered
surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest
deep-layer shear.

$$

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