Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 23 2024 17:01:35 ACUS02 KWNS 231701 SWODY2 SPC AC 231700 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF LA/MS AND SOUTHWEST AL... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from south-central and southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. ....South TX into parts of the Southeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deamplify somewhat as it moves northeastward from the southern Rockies toward the ArkLaTex region. A surface front (whose position will be determined in part by the evolution of convection during the D1/Tuesday period) will initially be draped somewhere from south TX northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss region, and then southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast vicinity. Uncertainty remains relatively high regarding storm evolution on D2/Wednesday. Broad ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level trough and rich low-level moisture will likely support widespread cloudiness and convection from the mid/upper TX coast toward the central Gulf Coast region. While instability will likely remain limited across much of the area, rich low-level moisture and favorable deep-layer shear may support occasionally organized storm structures. There will likely be a tendency for most convection to remain on the cool side of the outflow-reinforced surface boundary, but if any surface-based storms can be sustained, then some threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated hail will also be possible across parts of south-central/southeast TX, where somewhat more favorable midlevel lapse rates and instability are expected to persist along the southwestern periphery of extensive downstream convection. ...Dean.. 01/23/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .