Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 23 2024 14:56:46 AWUS01 KWNH 231456 FFGMPD LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232055- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0022 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 955 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2024 Areas affected...Northeast TX through Central AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 231455Z - 232055Z SUMMARY...Some increase in the concentration of heavy rainfall is expected over the next several hours across the Arklatex region. Given the wet antecedent conditions, these rains may result in some runoff problems with at least a localized threat of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery has been showing cooling cloud tops associated with an area of heavy rainfall and embedded elevated convection across northeast TX over the last few hours. This concentration of heavy rainfall is being driven in part by an upper-level jet max crossing the region downstream of a deep layer trough over the Southwest, and this energy is interacting with a modest pool of elevated instability with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg. Additionally, there is an increasingly moist and convergent low-level flow regime emanating off the western Gulf of Mexico and this is nosing northward toward the broader Arklatex region. The low-level jet will gradually be strengthening going through the late morning and early afternoon hours, and the speed convergence associated with the nose of this jet coupled with increasing PWs should facilitate some increase in rainfall rates. Some broader expansion of elevated convection is also expected over the next 3 to 6 hours, given the aforementioned larger scale jet energy aloft/forcing and some localized uptick in instability. Some rainfall rates with the stronger convective elements are expected to reach into the 0.50" to 0.75"/hour range. The 06Z HREF guidance and the recent HRRR guidance has generally been on the slow side with the current evolution of heavy rain/convection, but does support the axis of heavy rains advancing northeastward toward central AR in time. Some additional rainfall totals going through early to mid-afternoon may reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Given the localized persistence of the heavy rainfall over the next several hours, and wet antecedent conditions, these rains may result in some runoff problems including a threat for localized flash flooding. This will include some of the more sensitive urban locations as well. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!738DYOeiKjNMJOZtFE7DgzgHXLuyv0XOjHVqm8PTRjVEZnCmEOPrXi4C8hFNIcEZQ0KN= XRVtNJy4-xZUI0viiI4Bnts$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...SHV... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35009279 34819213 34109230 32899325 31969465=20 31609599 32009661 32459641 33419539 34469408=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .