Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 23 2024 13:01:34

ACUS01 KWNS 231301
SWODY1
SPC AC 231300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana.

....South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana...
Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this
morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet
that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the
southern Plains through tonight.  Instability remains weak, and
generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with
small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of
convection spread across the area.

Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east
Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will
continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms
eventually evolve this afternoon.  This convection could pose local
risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or
two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential
despite favorably strong/veering flow with height.  Some risk for
gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western
Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end
of the period.

...Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024

$$

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