Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 23 2024 09:57:32

ACUS48 KWNS 230957
SWOD48
SPC AC 230956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern
Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is
forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and
evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each
day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday,
as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across
the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability
ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor
for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the
mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be
enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind
damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too
low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the
upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist
sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of
the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very
weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast
scenario.

....Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western
Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is
forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this
reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the
continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low.

...Broyles.. 01/23/2024

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