Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 23 2024 05:27:59

ACUS01 KWNS 230527
SWODY1
SPC AC 230526

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana.

....TX/LA...

Very active southern stream will continue into mid week with the
primary core of stronger midlevel flow forecast to extend across
northern Mexico before rotating across TX into the lower OH Valley.
This flow regime will result in negligible height changes across
south TX into LA, but deep southwesterly flow will encourage a slow
northward advance of modified Gulf air into Coastal TX/LA.

Lower 60s surface dew points have returned to coastal TX as the main
surface boundary is now oriented from near LRD-north of VCT-IAH.
This wind shift is expected to advance north across east TX as a
weak surface low tracks into southeast OK Tuesday night. Even so,
any appreciable airmass destabilization is expected to hold across
coastal TX into western LA, due in part to substantial elevated
convection from warm advection. Forecast soundings suggest
surface-based buoyancy is possible where dew points are able to rise
above 67F, albeit weak due to poor low-level lapse rates. With time
midlevel lapse rates should steepen across south-central TX in
response to the approaching trough. This should aid instability such
that some robustness is possible with convection that evolves across
this region. Several bouts of convection will be noted, modulated in
part by the LLJ and warm advection. At this time it appears overall
severe threat should remain too isolated to warrant a SLGT Risk.
However, some threat for wind/hail does exist with some of this
activity, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out.

...Darrow/Thornton.. 01/23/2024

$$

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