Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 23 2024 00:31:58

ACUS01 KWNS 230031
SWODY1
SPC AC 230030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....01z Update...

Several southern-stream short-wave troughs will influence convective
potential from coastal CA into the lower MS Valley tonight. One weak
short wave is ejecting across OK/east TX early this evening while a
secondary disturbance is advancing across northern Mexico. Isolated
thunderstorms have developed along the southern influence of the
lead feature along the upper TX Coast where modified Gulf air mass
has returned. Additional convection is now developing across
northern Mexico, south of the Big Bend, within the left exit region
of an approaching midlevel speed max. While the primary LLJ will
shift into the lower OH Valley with the lead trough, southerly 850mb
flow is expected to persist across TX tonight. Additional elevated
convection is expected to develop in response to the northern Mexico
feature as it approaches southwest TX later tonight.  The boundary
layer will likely remain a bit too cool along the TX Coast to
warrant much potential for surface-based storms, thus the severe
risk appears minimal.

Upstream, isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of
CA, in a regime of steepening lapse rates ahead of a short wave
trough.  Convective threat will spread southeast tonight as the
short wave digs into northwestern Mexico and the lower CO River
Valley.

...Darrow.. 01/23/2024

$$

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