Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 22 2024 19:55:59 ACUS01 KWNS 221955 SWODY1 SPC AC 221954 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ....20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous outlook reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. A few stronger storms are possible this afternoon/evening near the upper TX coast, and perhaps late tonight near the Edwards Plateau region, but the severe threat still appears limited through the end of the period. ...Dean.. 01/22/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ....South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ....Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .