Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 22 2024 17:29:27 ACUS02 KWNS 221729 SWODY2 SPC AC 221727 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST TX INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN LA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of south-central into east Texas and western/northern Louisiana. ....South-central/east TX into western/northern LA... A mid/upper-level trough will move only slowly eastward across the Southwest into the southern Plains on Tuesday. Within the larger-scale trough, multiple shortwaves will emanate from northern Mexico and generally move northeastward toward the ArkLaTex region. This pattern will result in multiple rounds of thunderstorms across parts of TX/LA, as rich low-level moisture streams inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Severe-thunderstorm potential remains somewhat unclear within this regime. However, increasing low-level and deep-layer shear will become favorable for organized convection within the broad warm-advection regime from the TX coastal plain into parts of LA. While instability will likely remain rather weak near/north of the effective warm front, the favorable wind profiles and increasing moisture may support the development of at least transient supercells or bowing segments within a large cluster of convection that is expected to move from east TX into LA through the day. Some threat for locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado may evolve if any organized storm structures can be sustained. Tuesday evening into the overnight hours, another ejecting shortwave may aid in redevelopment of convection from south-central TX toward the mid/upper TX Coast. This could lead to isolated elevated supercell development across south-central TX, and some potential for near-surface-based supercell development near the coast by early Wednesday morning. ...Dean.. 01/22/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .