Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 22 2024 05:19:19

ACUS01 KWNS 220519
SWODY1
SPC AC 220517

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....Discussion...

Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few
days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico
toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in
PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air
mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained
low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air
mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley.
Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant,
and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should
primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part
by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the
Arklatex region.

Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest
convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong
midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja
Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will
contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As
a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat
gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the
period.

...Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024

$$

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