Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 21 2024 17:20:15

ACUS02 KWNS 211720
SWODY2
SPC AC 211718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Monday or Monday night.

....Synopsis...
A larger-scale upper trough will become better defined across the
West during the period as a series of disturbances move through the
base of the trough.  A mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject
northeastward from northern Mexico/southwest TX to the Arklatex by
late evening and subsequently into the lower OH Valley by early
Tuesday.  Upstream of this feature, a powerful eastern Pacific jet
will act to amplify an upper trough over the Sierra/NV and AZ
vicinity.  Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield
intermittent weak buoyancy and favor showers and a few thunderstorms
near the CA coast and into the Sonoran Desert.  A more spatially
extensive area for isolated thunderstorms will include a large part
of central/eastern TX into the OK/Arklatex region in association
with a warm-air advection regime atop a cool boundary layer.  The
absence of surface-based instability will likely preclude strong
thunderstorm development across the south-central states.

...Smith.. 01/21/2024

$$

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