Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 21 2024 09:57:12

ACUS48 KWNS 210957
SWOD48
SPC AC 210955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
On Wednesday and Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
from northern Mexico to the mid Mississippi Valley, becoming
considerably less amplified with time. At the surface, a cold front
is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Ahead of
the front on Wednesday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place
with scattered thunderstorms developing across much of the region.
As the front progresses eastward Wednesday night and Thursday, model
forecasts suggest that a line could gradually organize in the
central Gulf Coast states. An isolated severe threat would be
possible as cell coverage and low-level moisture gradually increase,
but the greatest threat will probably be confined to areas near the
Gulf Coast where instability is forecast to be the strongest. At
this time, model forecast parameters suggest any severe threat will
remain localized at best.

On Friday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast across the
Southeast, as an upper-level trough moves toward the southern
Plains. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will again be possible
Friday afternoon along the Gulf Coast, with the possibility of a
localized severe threat over parts of the Florida Panhandle.
However, differences in model solutions suggest uncertainty is
substantial.

....Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday and Sunday, a strong mid-level jet is forecast to move
northeastward from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard.
Ahead of this feature, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place in
the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be
possible ahead of the jet within the moist airmass. However,
instability is forecast to remain relatively weak across the region
suggesting that any potential severe threat will remain relatively
confined. Uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of any
severe threat on Saturday, mainly due to model differences regarding
the timing of the upper-level trough and the strength of moisture
return. The potential for thunderstorms is expected to decrease on
Sunday as a large area of surface high pressure moves into the
central and eastern U.S.

...Broyles.. 01/21/2024

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