Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 21 2024 08:25:42

ACUS03 KWNS 210825
SWODY3
SPC AC 210824

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will
be possible on Tuesday from parts of southern and central Texas
eastward to the Texas coast.

....South-central Texas/Texas Coastal Plain...
Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across much of the
central and eastern U.S., as a trough moves through the Desert
Southwest and northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist
airmass is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Coastal Plain, where
moderate instability may develop during the day. Model forecasts
differ on how far inland this moist airmass will be, with the ECMWF
and GFS taking positions much further west than the NAM. The ECMWF
is furthest west, with 60+ surface dewpoints over much of
south-central Texas. Of the deterministic solutions, the ECMWF is
the most favorable for a severe threat with moderate instability and
strong deep-layer shear in place by midday, suggesting that a
marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible. The threat
would gradually transition eastward from south-central Texas to the
Texas Coast by Tuesday evening. Although the ECMWF shows an
environment that could support a severe threat, other solutions are
less favorable. Due to the uncertainty associated with relatively
large model differences, a marginal risk appears to be appropriate
at this time.

...Broyles.. 01/21/2024

$$

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