Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jan 21 2024 08:12:45 FOUS30 KWBC 210812 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 312 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Jan 21 2024 - 12Z Mon Jan 22 2024 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON... ....California and southwest Oregon... Overall, not much change from the previous forecast. The southern extent of ongoing precipitation across California will continue to spread further south and east across southern California, as a shortwave embedded within a broad upper trough amplifies the flow across the region later this morning. This may bring some orographically-focused moderate to heavy amounts into the coastal ranges before shortwave ridging brings drier conditions across central to southern California by the afternoon and continuing into the evening. Meanwhile, models have been consistent in showing another shortwave and accompanying plume of deeper moisture moving into western Oregon and northern California during the overnight into Monday morning. Increasing IVT along with favorable forcing will focus again across northern California into southwestern Oregon, supporting increasing rainfall rates across the same areas impacted by moderate to heavy rainfall on Saturday. HREF neighborhood probabilities indicated that locally heavy amounts of 3 inches or more likely within the Slight Risk area by 12Z Monday. Given the near-saturated to saturated soils across the region, these additional rains are are expected to contribute to further runoff concerns. .....Southern and central Texas... As a broad upper trough moves across the Southwest into the southern Rockies and High Plains, southerly low level inflow is expected to increase across southern to eastern Texas. PWs are forecast to increase to 1.25-1.5 inches (1-2 standard deviations above normal) along a 50 kt low level jet extending from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico through eastern Texas. This moisture, interacting with increasing ascent afforded in part by favorable upper jet forcing, will support the development of rainfall across southern to central Texas. Despite ample moisture and forcing, limited instability is expected to help keep rainfall rates and the threat for widespread excessive runoff concerns in check.=20=20 Pereira Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8CANjfw3Kdh9CFF9vhKAq45hlcBd53tfWO9IwqGN7HEs= zyViCJvPMdPQVrxYLx-_NwnyB65PJxzseiZnaUdF058l_oU$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8CANjfw3Kdh9CFF9vhKAq45hlcBd53tfWO9IwqGN7HEs= zyViCJvPMdPQVrxYLx-_NwnyB65PJxzseiZnaUdFB23nWPE$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8CANjfw3Kdh9CFF9vhKAq45hlcBd53tfWO9IwqGN7HEs= zyViCJvPMdPQVrxYLx-_NwnyB65PJxzseiZnaUdFB9v69uA$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .