Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 20 2024 20:01:37

ACUS01 KWNS 202001
SWODY1
SPC AC 201959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS through tonight.

....Discussion...
No change was made to the previous convective outlook.

...Smith.. 01/20/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024/

....Synopsis...
Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist
through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough
over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a
trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west,
a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late
tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over
the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS
Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a
continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions
will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An
isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but
weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late
arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances
well below 10% coverage thresholds.

$$

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