Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 20 2024 08:02:18

FOUS30 KWBC 200802
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 20 2024 - 12Z Sun Jan 21 2024

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...

Overall, no large-scale changes to the previous forecast, with
rainfall rates and the threat for excessive runoff expected to
increase later this morning across portions of northern California
and far southwestern Oregon.  As expected, a leading plume of
deeper moisture associated with an upper trough and its frontal
band moved inland, with precipitation spreading across much of
northern California late Friday into this morning.  The IVT
associated with this leading band is expected to become more
diffuse as it pushes further inland this morning.  However,
amplified westerly winds south of the parent low are expected to
tap a secondary surge of deeper moisture, directing it inland as
it lifts along the northern California and Oregon coasts later
this morning.  This moisture along with favorable upper forcing
and orographic effects will support heavy rainfall amounts within
the highlighted area.  HREF neighborhood probabilities continue to
indicate locally heavy amounts of 3 inches or more are likely
within the Slight Risk area between 12Z Sat and 00Z Sun.  These
short-term heavy rains, along with the antecedent wet conditions
can be expected to produce localized runoff concerns.

Pereira


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7FhDPNy_Cgflj2mhvJoc1NpS545dmVVCFmLyUPCpEgUP=
yPKmPPDFGbN6hm5hmWQiYZcUDn6bzNkqq6OrlwCo7NdPFVo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7FhDPNy_Cgflj2mhvJoc1NpS545dmVVCFmLyUPCpEgUP=
yPKmPPDFGbN6hm5hmWQiYZcUDn6bzNkqq6OrlwCou3O_dBg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7FhDPNy_Cgflj2mhvJoc1NpS545dmVVCFmLyUPCpEgUP=
yPKmPPDFGbN6hm5hmWQiYZcUDn6bzNkqq6OrlwCoiBoLOQ0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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